Publisher predictions for Black Friday and Cyber Week 2023

As Black Friday and the online retail peak approaches, we wanted to understand how our publishers were feeling about this year’s event. We asked a selection of them to share their thoughts and predictions for the annual sales frenzy and how it might perform. 

Christian Davies, The Sole Supplier: More demand than ever for a good bargain 

“It's been a tough year for many financially and not surprisingly we're seeing our audience making more considered purchases. It's for this reason that we foresee an unprecedented level of hype this year for those retailers offering strong discounts, and we expect many of our users will hold out for just the right time in November to ensure they don't miss the biggest bargains.” 

Jake Hodgkiss, TopCashback: Health & Beauty is set to flourish 

“Our Health & Beauty category has continued to go from strength to strength over the last few years, with 2023 being no exception. There is a huge appetite for saving on beauty essentials amongst our audience and we expect to see record-breaking performance across the vertical this Q4. Early indications suggest Black Friday offers will be starting even earlier this year, with a more competitive beauty market than ever before. Therefore, it’s key for partners to be transparent about their objectives and think strategically when planning cashback rates. As part of this, we expect to see a surge in limited time flash rate bookings, where merchants push record rates for short periods to create a compelling call to action.” 

Elena Glynn, VoucherCodes.co.uk: Shoppers are set to snap up Cyber Week deals to bring down the cost of Christmas 

“This Cyber period, more than ever, we’re expecting to see shoppers making savvy use of the bumper discounts available to shop for Christmas. 

With many people facing an economic squeeze right now, we’ve noticed a shift in how shoppers approach discounting periods, with many making smarter and more regular use of offers to make life more affordable. This will be particularly relevant ahead of Christmas 2023, as living costs are set to remain high. We predict that we'll see shoppers planning purchases ahead of time, shopping around for the best deals and relying on discounts to bring down the cost of Christmas.  

When it comes to our product forecasts for this Cyber period, we expect to see the return of the air fryer frenzy as people look for great deals on this easy, tasty and cost-effective way to cook. When it comes to children’s gifts, nostalgia is set to reign, thanks to the success and halo-effect of the Barbie movie earlier this summer.” 

Sapna Basi, Dealmoon: For Chinese expats, Black Friday will be a time for them to thrive! 

“One of the key factors that almost everyone has been victim to this year is a higher cost of living, and the direct impact this has on leisurely shopping. 

Many consumers are in ‘money-saving mode’ and may have to think twice before checking out. These trends could continue into Q4 if retailers aren’t offering competitive and generous discounts.  

Interestingly, Chinese expat trends suggest that despite this, users are still spending more than ever before and AOV continues to increase across the board. But despite their high disposable income compared to the average consumer, Chinese expats continue to remain extremely discount savvy and are always on the lookout for the best possible price, with even higher expectations of discounts during Cyber Week. 

Ultimately, predictions for Cyber Week at Dealmoon are mainly motivated by how unique and creative our retailers can be with their offers, how exclusive they are, and how aggressive the discount can be, with a primary focus on fashion and beauty.” 

Simone Gerhardt, Stylink: Influencers will help you crack the Cyber Week code 

“Each year, advertisers and influencers approach us earlier and earlier and this year is no exception. Particularly in influencer marketing creators were already receiving bookings as early as August! This is why preparation and early planning is key. Clarifying your Cyber Week goals and sharing them with us - your publishers - as soon as possible only better equips us to help you exceed your performance expectations. 

Overall, we've noticed a significant increase in spend on influencer performance marketing. But we want to emphasise the importance of granting influencers as much creative freedom as possible. This is our go-to recommendation for advertisers looking to make the biggest influencer marketing impact.  

In terms of trends and segments, technology remains in high demand, with gaming leading the way. For our fashion influencers, denim is on the rise, because who can resist the resurgence of the beloved 90s trend?” 

Hope Houston, Easyfundraising: Personalised journeys to be key this Golden Quarter 

“Easyfundraising believe more personalised journeys will be key to driving sales in Cyber 2023. In order to support this, we have tactically developed six new demographic and psychographic segments, such as ‘eco shoppers ‘, ‘luxury shoppers’ and ‘families’, as well as seven new intent-based segments to target users in market segments such as ‘mobiles’ & ‘white goods’. This will allow our brand partners to reach a relevant audience at the right time, which is essential within the current shopping climate. 

The spectre of a recession may have tightened peoples purses this year but as we move into a period of Christmas spirit, an environment of giving and gifting, Easyfundraising will be the platform to support both brands and shoppers, with strategically targeted campaigns, whilst driving a force for good.” 

Jose Lorenzo, Twenga: M-commerce could define your Cyber, are you ready? 

“Mobile commerce is fast becoming consumers’ preferred shopping channel. In 2021, retail m-commerce sales hit $359B – 15.2% increase YoY. By 2025, retail m-commerce sales should more than double, and account for 44.2% of retail ecommerce sales according to Statista. 

During Cyber Week, mobile usage skyrockets, underscoring the need for advertisers to optimise for this platform. Ensure your ecommerce platform is mobile-friendly, loads swiftly, and boasts a streamlined checkout process. Develop mobile-optimised ads with concise text and captivating visuals. Leverage location-based targeting to offer pertinent deals near your physical stores. 

With the rollout of the new Apple iOS 17 and its Link Tracking Protection in September, collaborating with Awin to implement its tracking suite, including S2S tracking, pixel, and MasterTag, is essential. This ensures publishers can retrieve maximum transactional insights. If you have an app, ensure universal tracking linking is in place to amplify your partners' conversions.” 

Andrew Roberts, intent.ly: Smart retailers will use the power of personalisation 

“The peak days of Cyber will continue to flatten with deals available earlier and for longer. Savvy shoppers are wise to this and will continue to look for value as we work our way through turbulent times for the economy, with some categories benefiting from delayed purchases from earlier in the year. 

For retailers, offer relevancy and conversion earlier in the period will likely lead to the best results providing the opportunity for shoppers to buy again in the latter stages of the period.  

Smarter retailers will be personalising offers to known shopper personas and missions, optimising relevancy, engaging and reacting to shopper session behaviours on-site to complete more shopper trips and increase overall basket penetration.” 

Kamel Rezigui, IGRAAL: Expect aggressive discounts and promotions from retailers 

“Given the exponential growth of ecommerce in recent years it is likely that online shopping will continue to dominate Black Friday in 2023. The convenience of shopping from home and the proliferation of mobile devices have made online shopping increasingly popular. 

Furthermore, we can anticipate that the competition among online retailers will be fierce, leading to even more aggressive discounts and promotions. Retailers may offer exclusive deals and limited-time offers to attract customers and drive a surge in sales. In this case, the cashback offer enables merchants to differentiate from the competition. 

In addition to traditional retail categories such as electronics, fashion, and home goods, emerging industries like sustainable products, smart home technology, and health and wellness may see a significant boost in sales during the Black Friday period. 

Overall, while it is impossible to provide an exact prediction for Black Friday 2023, it is reasonable to expect that online shopping will continue to dominate, competitiveness will increase, and new technologies will play a significant role in shaping the shopping experience.”

Huge thanks to all partners who contributed their predictions to this post. 

We also asked a selection of our staff for their thoughts on what to expect from Black Friday 2023.